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Manufacturing contracted in Houston in March while non-manufacturing activity expanded, albeit at a slower pace than in February, according to the most recent Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prepared by the Institute for Supply Management-Houston. 

The overall PMI slipped 3.2 points to 50.5, down from 53.7 the month before. Readings above 50 indicate overall expansion in Houston’s economy, below 50, contraction. 

Regarding the two major subcomponents: 

• Houston’s Manufacturing PMI slipped 9.5 points to 45.9, indicating contraction. It has tracked below 50 for 12 of the past 18 months. 
• The Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped from 53.3 to 51.4. It has tracked above 50 for all but one month since August ’20.

Two of three indicators with a strong positive correlation with economic activity, Sales/New Orders and Lead Times saw expansion while Employment signaled contraction.

Two of the three underlying indicators that have the strongest positive correlation with economic growth—sales/new orders and employment—are pointing to expansion. The third indicator with a strong positive correlation (lead times) continues to give a modest signal for contraction. 

• Sales/New Orders slipped to 52.2 points. 
• Lead Times expanded to 51.6 points.
• Employment came in at 49.7 points. 

The finished goods inventory index, the underlying indicator that has the strongest inverse correlation with economic activity, expanded reaching 53.9 points.

On an industry-specific basis, business and technical services and utilities reported strong expansion. Construction, durable goods manufacturing, and health care reported moderate growth. Oil and gas, transportation and warehousing, and durable goods manufacturing contracted.

The PMI is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management – Houston and is based on a survey of supply chain executives in the region. For additional information, click here.

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist
Senior Vice President, Research
pjankowski@houston.org

Leta Wauson
Research Director
Greater Houston Partnership
lwauson@houston.org