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The closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $79.41 per barrel in April ’23, down from $101.78 over the same month in ’22. Crude prices last year spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine. They remained elevated through the summer even when concerns over supply eased. Oil prices have fallen nearly 37.0 percent from their peak of $120.43 the week of June 10, 2022. 

In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts WTI to average $80.31 per barrel through the end of this year, dropping to an average of $75.25 for all of ’24.  

The EIA expects global liquids fuel production to increase by 1.5 million b/d in ’23, even with declining production in OPEC and Russia. EIA’s forecast assumes strong growth from non-OPEC countries, largely driven by countries in North and South America. The agency forecasts crude consumption to rise by 1.4 million b/d in ’23 and by 1.8 million b/d in ’24. However, the agency acknowledges that growing uncertainty over the U.S. and global economic outlooks could dramatically reduce consumption.

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research Department

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist
Senior Vice President, Research
pjankowski@houston.org

Clara Richardson
Research Associate
713-844-3653
crichardson@houston.org