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Houston’s housing market is moving toward a sustainable level of closings, prices, and inventory. Single-family sales rose this April compared to the doldrums of April last year. Home prices are up marginally over the year, but they are tracking below the level of two years ago. More owners are listing their homes for sale, which has boosted inventory. Mortgage interest rates remain elevated, however, impacting housing affordability.

CLOSINGS

Brokers closed on 7,926 single-family homes in April, a 9.2 percent jump over last year, according to data provided by the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR). Year-to-date, sales are up 3.3 percent compared to the same four months last year. The stronger start suggests that ’24 will be better than ’23. Last year, HAR logged just 84,000 single-family home sales. The first four months of ’24 puts the region on track to sell 86,000 to 87,000 homes this year.

HOME PRICES

Home prices are no longer escalating at a dizzying pace. During the post-pandemic boom, prices rose 15 to 20 percent annually. For the 12 months ending April ’21, the median home price jumped 17.6 percent. For the 12 months ending April ’22, prices jumped 16.4 percent. They slumped 3.9 percent last April but rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending April ’24. This most recent appreciation aligns with the pre-pandemic average of 3.0-4.0 percent per year.

INVENTORY

Listings have also returned to pre-pandemic levels. There were 26,246 single-family homes for sale through HAR’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in April ’24. At the lowest point (March ’21), there were fewer than 11,000 homes listed.  In the 24 months prior to the pandemic, listings averaged 26,100 a month.  The 26,000-plus listings this April may represent a new normal for the industry, given the population growth of recent years.

This April’s listings translate into 3.7 months of inventory, up from 2.6 months last April. That’s how long it will take to deplete current inventory based on the prior 12 months’ sales activity. A 3.5- to 4.0-month supply is considered a balanced market, where neither seller nor buyer has an advantage. 

INTEREST RATES

Mortgage interest rates continue to rise. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.99 percent in April, up from 6.82 percent in March and 6.78 percent in February.

• As of mid-May, the rate averaged 7.09 percent. The typical monthly note on a median-priced home in Houston ($340,000) is $2,676. 
• In May ’19, when the mortgage rate averaged 4.07 percent, the typical monthly note on a median-priced home ($245,000) was $1,579. 

The monthly payments assume 20 percent down and include estimates for taxes but don’t include insurance or homeowner’s association fees.

April saw a slight decline in sales of townhomes, condos, and high-rise units. The inventory of townhomes and condos (4.5 months) hit the highest level since October ’19. The inventory of high-rise units (8.2 months) is the highest level since March ’21. 

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Chief Economist
Senior Vice President, Research
pjankowski@houston.org

Leta Wauson
Research Director
lwauson@houston.org